Shipping: An Autonomous Future?

Unmanned and autonomous vessels – known by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) – are quickly becoming a reality. Developments in technology combined with a drive from manufacturers and operators, supported by some classification societies have seen significant advances in a relatively short space of time.

The currently held view by many in the industry is that ocean-going vessels will not operate autonomously or in an unmanned configuration any time soon. But it is expected that vessels will use the technology, such as sensors and artificial intelligence, to support onboard navigating officers.

In this article we briefly summarise the current state of play, consider possibilities for the future and outline some of the emerging risks this technology presents.

Autonomous does not mean unmanned

The terms ‘remote-controlled’, ‘unmanned’, ‘automated’ and ‘autonomous’ have all been used when describing the new technology. But they all mean very different things. It is possible – and in fact quite likely – that in the future vessels could be remote-controlled but still retain some onboard manning. Or perhaps they will be traditionally manned, where autonomous systems are used as a decision support tool.

Level of autonomy

Vessels and their intended operation will be subject to categorisation. Lloyds Register have introduced a system of autonomy levels, which is based on the intended level of onboard manning, human oversight and intervention and the level of autonomous decision making of onboard systems.

Is the technology available?

Autonomous-related technologies have gathered significant momentum in recent years and it is likely this will continue. 

Naturally, much will depend on the success of the early pioneering projects, such as the YARA BIRKELAND, the first commercial cargo vessel of this type. It expected to enter service in 2018 for manned remote operation. After testing the target is for unmanned remote operation during 2019 and, if successful, autonomous operations will begin in 2020. Rolls-Royce are driving a number of projects and currently predict a remote control unmanned vessel operating in coastal waters by 2025, a remote control unmanned ocean-going vessel by 2030 and an autonomous ocean-going vessel by 2035.

Much of the focus has been on the collision avoidance abilities of an unmanned or autonomous vessel. There are also well documented concerns on an unmanned vessel’s ability to berth, the role of the pilot and the security of shore control stations (both physical and cyber), but these are not insurmountable and technological solutions are inevitable.

Sensing technology, such as radar, camera, thermal imaging and lasers, is available now. But other challenges must be overcome before ocean-going unmanned and fully autonomous vessels can become a viable option for shipowners. Such challenges include:

• Decision making ability: It is likely that autonomous decision making will be a combination of rule-based actions and artificial intelligence (AI). At present AI systems are not capable of the complex decision making required to control all functions and operations necessary for the safe completion of a voyage.
• Reliable satellite data links: The data exchange between ship and shore for remote controlled and autonomous vessels is expected to be massive. The current bandwidth capabilities are not sufficient to cope with large scale operations, but providers are working to meet these expected demands.
• Power generation and propulsion: Very low maintenance equipment and systems will be needed for unmanned vessels and this precludes diesel engines. Battery technology may be the future but it is not yet sufficient to meet the power demands of a commercial ocean-going cargo vessel

The role of the future seafarer

The rise of autonomous systems and remote-controlled abilities does not mean the death knell of the seafarer. 

Although the technology may soon be available, unmanned vessels will not present a viable business case for many vessel types and trades. For some shipowners, the savings in onboard manning costs will not offset the investment needed to build such a vessel.

Also, the importance of the human’s role in safe vessel operation must not be underestimated. Despite the much vaunted statistic that the vast majority of incidents are caused by human error, the fact that human intervention has actually prevented or mitigated events is often forgotten. Besides, the human element is not eliminated on an unmanned or autonomous vessel – it is merely shifted somewhere else.

The skills of the seafarer will need to develop in order to work with the new technology. Technical staff, such as marine engineers and electro-technical officers, will need to understand, maintain and interact with new systems. Also, as the use of remotely operated and autonomous vessels becomes more prevalent, there is the risk of the traditional skills of navigation and collision avoidance becoming diluted. It is vital that the industry acts to identify the new skills needed and be pro-active in bridging the gaps. This could well lead to changes in STCW and/or the creation of new international legislation on training and competency for remote operators.

There is also the role of the remote operator to consider, which during the first few generations of autonomous vessels is likely to be filled by mariners making the move ashore. But it is possible that in the long term, remote operations could be carried out by people who have no actual sea-going experience. Furthermore, would a remote operator’s attitude to risk differ from someone actually on board?

Regulation

Currently, there are no IMO regulations in place that specifically address unmanned and autonomous vessels. The development of regulations, guidance and codes of practice is currently being undertaken on a national basis by interested countries, with Denmark recently releasing their recommendations. Even when the regulations have been created, significant challenges will be faced in enforcing them. As such, it is likely in the short-term that remote and autonomous vessels operations will be restricted to domestic trading only.

Work is underway by a number of academics and experts in maritime law in order to study compliance with the current international legislative framework and to identify gaps and ambiguities in interpretation.

The lack of clarity on legislation has an obvious impact on the provision of insurance for an unmanned or autonomous vessel. North is continuing to monitor the development of this technology, with Loss Prevention taking an active role in various working groups.

Author: Alvin Forster

Image Credit: Rolls-Royce plc