Evolution to Revolution: The Road to 2030 and 2050

The IMO announced in 2018 its ambitious targets on Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) from shipping, just as the industry was still figuring out how to deal with the impending reduction in the global fuel sulphur cap in 2020.

The introduction of the 0.50% sulphur cap has given rise to concerns on how vessels can comply and how non-compliance will be dealt with around the world. However, 2020 is likely to be relatively simple and straightforward compared with the challenges associated with curbing GHG emissions.

IMO ambitions

The IMO have adopted a strategy to reach its objectives on reducing GHG emissions – namely reducing CO₂ emissions from international shipping, both overall and in intensity. In simple terms:

• By 2030: reduce CO₂ emissions per unit of ‘transport-work’, as an average across international shipping, by at least 40% (compared to 2008 levels).
• By 2050: reduce CO₂ emissions per unit of ‘transport-work’, as an average across international shipping, by at least 70% (compared to 2008 levels).
• By 2050: reduce the total annual GHG emissions by at least 50% (compared to 2008 levels).

In very crude terms – a vessel will need to reduce its CO₂ emissions by 40% in the next decade and by 70% before 2050.

Is this realistic? It seems that this will very much be an evolution of existing operation, design and technology to 2030. Reaching the 2050 targets might require a revolution.

What is very clear however, is that shipowners who are looking to order newbuilds need to start thinking now.